AG 21 - Agriculture in the 21st century
– costs and benefits for societies and environments
Initiators:
Holm Tiessen (Germany), Dennis
Ojima (USA)
SCOPE is developing a new RAP project starting in 2005 to perform an
integrated review of the challenges and opportunities provided by agricultural
practices and new technologies in the 21st century. It will
liaison with related activities of the Global Change research programmes
(in particular IGBP/Land and ESSP/GECAFS) and the CGIAR network. The
objective is to assist in identifying a set of comprehensive questions
for new research and assessment in this field, and provide guidance
towards further studies on specific topics in the coming years.
This Rapid
Assessment Process project will address:
The traditional,
continuing challenges which result in a process of
marginalisation of poorer land users and include:
- degrading resource
base and declining fertility
- expansions into
marginal lands
- outmigration
and labour shortages
and on the other
end of the wealth spectrum:
- the environmental
impacts of intensification and concentration of production.
with an underlying
constraint to all agricultural production provided by:
- increasing cost
of inputs and declining commodity prices,
- decreasing availability
of water
- an increasing
awareness of product safety generates monitoring systems and institutions
that affect production and trade patterns
A new direction
for agricultural technology and practice results from the increasing
importance of the carbon economy:
- the importance
of C sequestration in Global Climate Change mitigation
- the demand
for renewable energy production from agriculture and forestry
The new
transgenic organisms will play an increasing part in production
and debate; among the opportunities provided by GMO’s are:
- improved
production efficiency,
- increased
value of products,
- reduced
agrochemical use,
- reduced
tillage and improved C sequestration,
- intensified
production, creating opportunities for protecting other areas;
at the same
time challenges will be provided by:
- contamination
of natural gene pools, "genetic pollution",
- closure
of markets,
- effects
on consumer health,
- effects
on non-target organisms,
- other
technology-specific threats such as the escape of antibiotic resistance
or inducer genes
The
role of knowledge systems and their application may provide
new opportunities:
- increasing
understanding of ecosystem function applied to agriculture may improve
efficiencies and reduce the potential for degradation;
- modelling
of crops and ecosystems will provide mechanisms for the synthesis
and transfer of knowledge
- Geographic
Information Systems will provide opportunities to adapt practices
to landscapes, resulting in precision agriculture and improved decision-making
tools for landuse planning
Social adaptation
that follows from changes in the
- resource
endowment,
- trade patterns
- production
patterns
- increasing
regulation
Results of
the analysis will be published as a synthesis volume, and other products
will be directed towards policy planners and management.
Up-dated
14 June 2005