Suzanne Billharz
Bedrich Moldan
In 1996, the Scientific Workshop on Sustainable Development Indicators (Wuppertal, Germany) identified the following areas in need of further research. The scientific community is encouraged to undertake new work or emphasize these areas in further efforts:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS
1. Materials flow
Various indicators may be derived using materials flow analysis, summarizing the use or throughput of materials in a national economy. This type of analysis could be applied to several different environmental, social, economic, and other sustainability indicators. Ongoing work should be continued to derive highly aggregated indicators for the environmental pressure that is associated with Total Material Input and the global material consumption of a national economy (including energy carriers). The environmental pressure associated with different material (and energy) flows 'as well as overall input' can be related to the various sectors of industry, thus operationalizing the inter-linkage between the environmental, economic and institutional aspects of sustainability. Associated indicator concepts such as the 'ecological rucksack', material intensity, and material accounting were considered promising and in need of further research.
2. Spatially-related indicators
This approach derives indicators from Geographic Information Systems (GIS) or digital map systems using satellite imaging that can summarize graphically, as well as statistically, the pattern of spatially-variable phenomena, such as biodiversity or land use. The important role of such non-numerically measured indicators was acknowledged. In addition to environmental indicators, this approach can be applied to social and, perhaps, economic indicators as well. Further work is needed to explore the interaction of materials flow and spatially-related indicators, since materials flow can be analyzed spatially, sectorally, and by an individual organization or system.
3. Stock Measurements
An important relationship is seen between 'stock' and 'flow' measures. The use of stock measurements (such as capital or habitat) is generally being recognized as a means to replace more conventional flow variables (e.g. savings or emissions) in the context of sustainable development. Consequently, it was recognized that because the rate of change of stocks has to be set in relation to flow measurements, the methodologies for compiling stock and flow indicators have to be made compatible. This approach should be applied to develop indicators of natural capital, human capital and social capital.
4. Source indicators
Further work is needed on source indicators, such as resource use. Materials flow analysis could be usefully applied to indicators of resource use, summarizing the use or throughput of natural resources in a national economy.
5. Life support indicators
Life support indicators, such as biodiversity, constitute an important area for further work. In this respect, GIS could be usefully applied.
6. Earth process indicators
Earth process indicators, focusing on natural processes, need to be further developed since there is a need to learn how to cope with rapidly changing environmental conditions, including natural disasters, and hence changing baselines for gauging the effects of human activities (on a longer time scale).
7. Geobiosphere load indicators
Geobiosphere load indicators, based on the concept of 'geobiosphere services', need to be further developed.
8. Space indicators
Use of space indicators need further research, based on the need to understand the ecological implications of the use of space for human activities. Space, used by human activities, should also reflect the intensity of use of the space.
9. Societal Appropriation of Net Primary Production (NPP) of biomass
Research is needed to establish levels of societal appropriation of NPP and to relate these levels to biodiversity and the use of space for economic activities.
SOCIAL INDICATORS
10. Human aspects of sustainability
There is a need for indicators focusing on: the human aspects of sustainability, on individual human properties such as levels of literacy and health, and on collective properties of society. The measurement of 'social capital' constitutes one research avenue for developing such indicators. In this regard, research should focus particularly on non-economic measures. Possible related areas may also call for indicators in their own right, such as civic engagement and voluntarism. Further research areas include improved measures, particularly non-economic measures, of equity, vulnerability, exposure, and resilience.
11. Social and inter-generational equity
Regarding social equity indicators, an approach was suggested to apply spatially related indicators to social equity by summarizing the distribution of phenomena such as pollutant exposures, population migrations, labour flows, and conflicts. Concerning the issue of inter-generational equity, current work should continue in order to develop better or additional measures for distributions within a given population. Deprivation could be such a measure.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
12. Redefining existing economic indicators
The workshop considered that many existing economic indicators are not appropriate measures for sustainable development. Additional research emphasis should be placed on a number of areas, including redefining or improving existing economic indicators such as GDP, efficiency, productivity, wealth, saving, and material intensity in order to develop new indicators more appropriate to a sustainable development perspective. One approach could be to apply the UN System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA).
This system expands the widely adopted (1993) System of National Accounts (SNA) in both physical and monetary forms to cover natural resource depletion and environmental degradation. Another approach could be to apply materials flow analysis, linking materials flow data to economic indicators, as well as green accounting and other techniques.
13. Impacts of international trade
Indicators reflecting the magnitude of trade flows and their economic, environmental and social impacts (for instance ratios of physical and monetary flows) are needed. An area for future research is international trade in natural assets, which involves the issues of resource depletion, environmental degradation and the reinvestment of revenues. It was suggested that monetary values of trade flows could be taken as a starting point for indicator development in the near future.
14. Linking indicators with employment and public finance
The importance was stressed of connecting sustainable development indicators to employment and public finance. The workshop considered this link to be vital, given that politicians use GDP knowing it is not a measure of sustainability because it is related to jobs and finance. One approach may be to link materials flow data with established economic indicators such as employment, savings rates, and capital generation. Green accounting techniques could also be usefully applied.
FRAMEWORKS, LINKAGES, AND MODELS
15. Framework consensus
The workshop considered that no scientific consensus exists as to the appropriate framework for indicators of sustainable development in the long term, although pragmatic considerations mandate use of the pressure-state-response (P-S-R) framework as an organizing tool for the near term. It was suggested that the P-S-R framework could be improved by distinguishing between 'Driving forces' and 'Pressures', by adding 'Impacts', 'Effects', and/or 'Exposures' to the 'State' component, and by changing 'Response' to' Activities'.
16. Problems of the CSD 'working list'
Several specific problems of the CSD 'working list' were identified and approaches or solutions proposed, although that was not the main focus of the workshop. Among environmental indicators, inadequate attention is given to the issues of source and life support indicators, such as resource use and biodiversity. In the area of social indicators, the workshop noted the lack of adequate social or institutional indicators (those which consider the collective properties of society, as opposed to those which focus on individual human properties). Among economic indicators, the workshop noted that international trade is not adequately taken into account.
17. The issue of linkages
No scientific consensus exists as to the appropriate linkages among framework components. This is seen as an area for long-term research and is at the heart of the challenge to the scientific community. The issue of linkages between different dimensions of sustainability was addressed by many proposed approaches. For example, green accounting represents a linkage between economy and environment. In general, almost all of the suggested approaches to highly aggregated indicators also represent approaches to integrating linkages.
18. Models of various types
The workshop considered models of various types that might ultimately provide a better way to represent the complex non-linear systems of human activities, bio-geophysical processes, and their interactions. Modelling was considered a fundamental approach to the understanding of sustainability issues, especially since good indicators of problems exist, but indicators showing how to avoid future problems are lacking. Caution must be taken, however, to remain aware of the potential limitations of models, including assumptions of general equilibrium and of the smooth or inelastic production functions. Models should not replace data. Taking these considerations into account, additional research on frameworks, linkages, and models relevant to sustainability issues is greatly needed, even though some of this research must necessarily be of a long-term, fundamental nature and hence, not immediately responsive to current policy-maker needs.
OTHER AREAS FOR INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT
19. Warning, predictive, or 'precautionary' indicators
Early warning, predictive, or 'precautionary' indicators were recommended which could approximate potential damage and suggest preventive actions. Such an indicator might be fundamental to whole system properties, such as suspected declining sperm counts in some regions or clusters of disease.
20. Uncertainty rating
There is a need to develop ways to express the degree of uncertainty attached to an indicator value. Research should focus on such topics making the underlying models transparent and designing uncertainty ratings for complex studies.
21. Effectiveness of communication testing
There is a need to determine for various issues which kinds of indicators communicate the ideas, most clearly and effectively, to policy-makers and the public. Research is needed on which categories of indicators (statistics, maps, model images, and so on) convey each idea the most effectively. Efforts should focus, for example, on numerical indicators versus non-numerical/qualitative measures, or regional versus local or national level indicators.
22. Sensitivity to poor data rating
There is a need for analysis of the sensitivity of an indicator to poor data quality. Indicators, for example, which are composed of fewer determinants are more sensitive than those composed of a large number of determinants. The weighting, of course, also plays a role in the sensitivity. A set of guidelines could be established that could be tested and applied to various indicators in current use.
23. Guidelines
Guidelines or criteria are needed to evaluate the policy usefulness and scientific validity of indicators.
MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES
24. Patterns masked by national and global averages
The importance of the differences inherent in different spatial scales is stressed. Important patterns may be masked by national or global averages. Moreover, the connections between indicators and policy-making may become blurred at different scales. Research to bring out significant patterns that are masked by national or global averages could take the form of mapping fragile ecosystems in relation to potentially threatening human activities, exposure modelling, and developing new ways to express the distribution of assets and resources within a population.
25. Indicators crucial to specific sectors
Some indicators may be crucial in the context of specific sectors. Some areas in which ISD use was considered especially important include agriculture, urban development, transport, energy, human settlement, and tourism, although other sectors could be added.
26. Use of real data
It was recommended that, very early in the process of indicator development, real data should be used to check the practicality and validity of the proposed concepts. Assigning data to indicators early in their development must be done with utmost care, however, in order to avoid imputation of values that might introduce circular reasoning into the steering process served by the indicator.
27. Availability and use of information
The degree to which information is available and is being used by groups in society is beginning to be recognized as an important parameter of sustainable development. Exactly how this relates to the CSD framework and how this could be measured needs further thought.
28. Presentation of indicators
Innovative ways of presenting indicators are needed. The objective is to present an indicator together with its overall context, as well as with its components. Standard graphic forms are needed (scales, colours, symbols).
USE OF INDICATORS
29. CSD 'working list' of indicators
The CSD Work Programme on Indicators of Sustainable Development with its 'working list' of indicators was welcomed as an important international initiative to stimulate work on the conceptual development and use of ISDs. The 'testing' of the CSD working list in pilot countries and the work on methodology sheets for each indicator of this list are great assets and should be supported wholeheartedly. Nevertheless, this work should be seen as a starting point. Further development and refinement of the CSD working list is clearly needed.
30. Public involvement
An important prerequisite for the successful use of indicators is broad public support based on solid education and understanding. Transparency of indicators is a crucial condition for active public participation.
MAIN OBSTACLES
The main obstacles to the production of indicators were identified as follows:
REFERENCES
Billharz, Suzanne and Bedrich Moldan (eds.) (1996) Scientific Workshop on Indicators of Sustainable Development. Wuppertal, Germany, November 15-17, 1995. SCOPE Report.