Manuel Winograd
The function of indicators should be to:
1. determine the condition of, and change in, the environment in relation to
society and the development process;
2. diagnose the actual causes and effects of existing problems that have been
detected, in order to elaborate responses and actions;
3. predict future impacts of human activities on the environment and society
to determine future and/or alternative strategies and policies.
The characteristics of world problems and the functioning of the socio-ecological systems are changing. The cause-effect chains tend to change from local to global levels (e.g. global warming), from specific to diffuse (e.g. air and water pollution), from short delay to long delay (e.g. CFCs and the ozone layer) and from low complexity to high complexity (e.g. land use changes) (see Figure 1).
In order to develop sustainability indicator frameworks which allow for the monitoring of development process, these cause-effect chains need to be addressed. Although information is used to monitor the development process, the indicators are related to the different individual components (e.g. economic indicators, social indicators and environmental indicators). What is lacking are tools to analyze and monitor the cause-effect relationships and linkages between components. To develop environmental and sustainability indicators, the Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework can be used as a taxonomic model to organize information. However the existence of linkages between scales and components and the relationship between variables imply the need to use other tools, such as GIS (see Figure 2).
In the case of land use, for example, it is necessary to have indicators reflecting other variables, in addition to indicators about the pressure, state, impact and response on land (Figure 3). At the same time, in order to develop further these linkages and relationships to sustainability, different types of indicators should be produced using different sources of information, such as tabulated data, textual analysis, maps and imagery.
The development of sustainability indicators should respond to uses and users of tools. Frameworks and indicators should be developed and used at different levels (administrative and ecological), with different scales (local, national, regional and global) and components (economic, social and environmental) (Figure 4). The indicator tools should be able to produce a range of information from local to global, from detailed to aggregated and from scientific to policymaking.
In conclusion, it is evident that diverse approaches, perspectives, needs and uses exist in relation to sustainability and to indicators of the development process. If diversity is one of the key characteristics or attributes of sustainability, then indicators can no longer be produced and simplified into simple indices. It appears more realistic and pragmatic to produce and use indicator tools to measure and analyse the whole pattern shown by the development process. In order for this to happen, indicator lists, aggregations or summations are needed, along with information that incorporates different scales, levels and components.
REFERENCES
Gallopín G. (1994) Impoverishment and Sustainable Development: A System Approach. Report of the IISD, Winnipeg, Canada.
Holmberg J. (1995) Socio-Ecological Principles and Indicators for Sustainability. Institute of Physical Resource Theory, Goteborg, Sweden.
O'Connor J. (1995) Coping with Complexity. Paper presented at 50 Session of ISI (International Statistical Institute), 21-29 August, 1995, Beijing, China.
Winograd M. (1995) Conceptual Framework to Develop and Use Environmental and Sustainability Indicators for Policy-Making in Latin America and the Caribbean. Discussion Paper, Project UNEP-CIAT, CIAT, Cali, Columbia.