4.2.1 DESERTIFICATION AS A THEORETICAL PROBLEM?

There is a consensus amongst theoretical and empirical ecologists that ecological systems are intrinsically complex. As an illustration, Rolling (1978) has demonstrated the insight gained by locating ecological management problems within the volume defined by the axes of data (empirical knowledge), understanding (theoretical knowledge), and intrinsic complexity. Starfield and Bleloch (1986), in a survey of functional, quantitative approaches to complex ecological problems, reduced the dimensions of this paradigm from three to two, but partitioned this space into four domains to compare and contrast problems and solutions. I have used this paradigm to illustrate the current appreciation of desertification (Fig. 4.1).

   Domain 1 of Figure 4.1 is characterized by good data and little understanding. Here statistical/empirical models are most useful in the initial stages of research, e.g. climate change, El Niño. In contrast is domain 4, where there are both good data and good understanding. This is the domain of engineering and physics and, consequently, of very few ecological management problems because solutions are readily apparent. I have located desertification in domain 2 because I perceive it to be characterized by good understanding but relatively few data. Desertification is not a problem where the rate limiting step is ecological understanding. Desertification is not a problem that requires fundamental research. The management of desertification is difficult, not because we do not know what to do, but because we do not know how to do it. In the arid areas, as in the rainforests, the short-term, humanitarian, considerations of people take precedence over scientifically based, long-term solutions for ecosystems.